ARIMA Model for Time Series Forecasting of Doge Coin Prices

Abstract

The volatility and speculative nature of cryptocurrencies present significant challenges for accurate price forecasting. This study evaluates the performance of the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in predicting Dogecoin (DOGE) prices based on historical data obtained from reputable cryptocurrency platforms such as Binance, Coinbase, and CoinGecko. The ARIMA(5,1,0) model demonstrated strong performance under stable market conditions, achieving a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0006656 and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.0258, effectively capturing linear price trends. However, the model’s limitations in handling high volatility and non-linear dependencies—common characteristics of cryptocurrency markets—were also identified. To address these challenges, the study explores hybrid ARIMA–neural network models that integrate statistical and machine learning approaches, improving predictive accuracy during periods of market instability. The results suggest that while ARIMA provides a solid baseline for time series forecasting, hybrid and sentiment-aware models incorporating social media and blockchain metrics offer more robust and adaptive solutions for dynamic cryptocurrency markets.